The Federal Government has challenged the interpretation of World Bank figures showing that interest payments reached 124 per cent of federal revenue in the first half of 2026, arguing that the comparison overstates Nigeria’s debt burden.
In a statement issued on Sunday and shared on X by Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, the Ministry of Finance said the calculation used incomplete revenue figures and included obligations serviced on behalf of state governments.
The ministry maintained that revenue was growing faster than interest payments and that full-year figures provided a more appropriate basis for assessing the country’s fiscal position.
Revenue Rose Faster Than Interest Payments
According to the ministry, federal revenue increased by 72 per cent, from ₦3.6 trillion in the first half of 2025 to ₦6.2 trillion in the corresponding period of 2026.
Interest payments rose by approximately 38 per cent over the same period, from ₦5.6 trillion to ₦7.7 trillion.
| Indicator | First half of 2025 | First half of 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Federal revenue | ₦3.6 trillion | ₦6.2 trillion |
| Interest payments | ₦5.6 trillion | ₦7.7 trillion |
| Reported interest-to-revenue ratio | 156% | 124% |
| Amount by which interest exceeded revenue | ₦2 trillion | ₦1.5 trillion |
Source: Federal Ministry of Finance statement. Figures are rounded.
The ministry said the ratio declined by 32 percentage points, while the gap between interest payments and revenue narrowed by ₦500 billion.
“This is the result of reforms working, not a sign of fiscal distress,” the statement said.
Ministry Questions Scope of the Calculation
The government’s first objection concerned the inclusion of debt obligations paid on behalf of other tiers of government, including external loans to states.
It argued that comparing those payments with federal revenue alone overstated the burden because the debt and revenue figures did not cover the same level of government.
Secondly, the ministry said the revenue total excluded independent income already earned by government agencies and enterprises but not yet remitted to the Treasury.
Its third objection concerned collection schedules. The ministry said some statutory tax payments fall predominantly in the second half of the year, making first-half revenue an incomplete guide to annual performance.
It cited the first-half 2025 ratio of 156 per cent alongside a full-year 2025 debt-service-to-revenue ratio below 60 per cent, which it said was down from 97 per cent before the reforms.
Government Cites 46% Full-Year Projection
The ministry said the same World Bank report projected Nigeria’s full-year 2026 debt service at 46 per cent of revenue.
That projection covers both principal repayments and interest, whereas the disputed first-half figure concerns interest payments. The measures also cover different periods and should not be treated as directly interchangeable.
The ministry nevertheless maintained that the annual projection provided a better guide to Nigeria’s fiscal position than a six-month comparison.
The debate follows renewed scrutiny of Nigeria’s borrowing, including proposed World Bank facilities and the country’s June 2026 public debt figures.
Finance Ministry Defends Borrowing Compliance
The government said federal borrowing remained within limits approved by the National Assembly under the 2026 Appropriation Act and the approved borrowing plan.
It also maintained that borrowing complied with the Fiscal Responsibility Act 2007 and the Debt Management Office Act 2003, with information published regularly by the Debt Management Office.
The statement did not provide a recalculated first-half ratio incorporating the additional revenue and adjustments it identified.
The ministry said it welcomed scrutiny but urged analysts to compare figures covering equivalent periods and levels of government, and to seek clarification where the underlying data were unclear.
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